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NASCAR at Talladega: Why Bubba Wallace Is One of the Favorites to Win

One of NASCAR’s most popular drivers, Bubba Wallace has performed mediocre at best this season in the Cup Series, so why is he a favorite to all of a sudden win at Talladega? Driver of the 23XI Racing Toyota this season, Wallace sits squarely in the middle of the pack with 163 Cup points; but just one Top 5 finish to his name all season — Daytona, where he finished second.

The Daytona Superspeedway finish coupled with Wallace’s win last fall at Talladega Superspeedway better paints the picture. For better or for worse, Wallace has gained a reputation for showing up big at the sport’s biggest tracks. Something about the chaos and unpredictability of superspeedway racing seems to resonate with Wallace, who said he relishes the challenge.

When recently asked if he looks forward to the superspeedway races now — like Sunday’s GEICO 500 at Talladega — Wallace couldn’t hide his enthusiasm.

“Oh, absolutely,” he said. ““We have all these meetings about what to do and what not to do. And I’m just sitting there like, in one ear out the other because I’m like, doesn’t matter. You can call the game plans. Sh-t goes through the roof when they drop the green flag. So we just continue to do what we do. That’s what I tell [spotter] Freddie [Kraft] every time we climb in the cars.”

Besides Bubba Wallace, who else do NASCAR oddsmakers think could win at Talladega?

Wallace will certainly ride some momentum into Alabama this weekend, but his career numbers at the track do not necessarily justify his favorite odds. Last season’s win at ‘Dega was his first Top 10 finish in eight starts at the track. But then again, races like these feature so many bumps and bruises that Las Vegas has to set odds based on projected market interest more so than probability. As a result, almost half the field sits within a few numbers on the odds board, Yahoo Sports reports. So while Wallace may perform well at Talladega this Sunday, don’t put too much stock into his — or anyone’s — “favorite” status.

Since this track most heavily resembles Daytona, Vegas typically sets odds based on the 500 results from February.

Daytona winner Austin Cindric currently occupies a top five spot on many sportsbooks at around 14-1 odds. Oddsmakers noticed then that Penske cars arguably ran best at Daytona, and have adjusted their Talladega odds accordingly. Cindric’s two teammates, Ryan Blaney and Joey Logano, sit slightly ahead of Cindric at 11-1. As a refresher, Blaney finished fourth at Daytona after leading 36 laps; while in addition, two of his seven Cup Series wins have come at Talladega. Logano’s got two Talladega wins in his career, as well.

Bubba Wallace’s teammate Denny Hamlin rounds out the top five NASCAR sportsbook favorites heading into Talladega this weekend.